Margin-Aware Team Strength Model

Purpose

Track team strength game by game while allowing the score margin to carry more information than a win alone.

Output

A season team-strength rating and expected game result used in team context surfaces.

Inputs

• Game result
• Score margin
• Home/away indicator
• Prior team ratings

Model

• Start from a rating prior and update after each completed game.
• Use a damped margin-of-victory adjustment so a 30-point win is not treated as 30 times a one-point win.
• Emit an expected home-team result that can be evaluated separately from the rating itself.

Evaluation

The model emits expected results for later calibration, but a public out-of-sample score is not currently published.

Calibration

Expected results are available for calibration work; no calibration claim is made here.

Limitations

• Home advantage is configured rather than season-fitted.
• Season regression and roster turnover are simplified.
• A team rating describes results and does not isolate player contribution.

Changelog

• Margin-of-victory dampening and expected-result output documented.